If the bus or subway feels dangerous, people will drive (if they can)

Understanding the transit trips not taken due to real & perceived danger

In bicycle advocacy, we often talk about “bike trips not taken” because of infrastructure. The reason for people opting out of cycling could be gaps in the bike lane network, busy intersections to cross, or other pain points.

There’s a similar issue with public transportation that urbanists seem afraid to talk about. If people feel unsafe using the subway or local bus, they’ll find another way to reach their destination. The feeling might come from witnessing violence on the subway, or just from knowing the city has decriminalized shoplifting. If a city isn’t going to enforce petty crimes in stores, then how much worse might things get on public transportation?

There’s no easy answer to this stuff. “There are no solutions, only trade-offs,” as Thomas Sowell said. But it doesn’t help urbanists to pretend like perceived safety is no big deal. Or worse, to act like these fears are just part of some kind of right-wing conspiracy against city living.

A safe systems approach to transportation involves enforcement, and that makes some urbanists and city planners uncomfortable post-2020. I get it—you don’t want the boys in blue dragging someone into a squad car for not paying a $2 fare. But the average American is aware of stories much more disturbing than a teenager hopping a subway turnstile. 

In 2022, crime on New York’s public transit spiked 65% compared to 2021. Murder, rape and felony assault kept climbing. Things got so bad so fast that the City produced a Subway Safety Plan initiative. 

For criminals, the subway is target-rich and escape from detection and arrest is easy. The transportation is built in.

—Michael Alcazar, retired NYPD detective and adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.

When I was a cop, I always feared sharp instruments more than guns. They’re easy to get, easier to conceal, and cause lots of damage. One simple solution is to enforce turnstile jumping again, but half of the City Council will lose their minds. 

—Joseph Giacalone, retired NYPD sergeant

We know it’s a big problem. But shame on us if this moment in time, if we don’t turn over every single stone, find every possible way to to deal with this.

—Kathy Hochul, NY Governor

Los Angeles also experienced a rise in public transit crime as ridership began to rebound post-pandemic. Violent crimes were up by 25% in 2021 compared to the previous year, with some crimes, such as aggravated assaults, exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite not having fully recovered ridership. The LA County Metropolitan Transportation Authority reported five murders in transit stations or on public transport in 2021, including a young woman on her way to work.

It doesn’t matter if you’re older or younger. That’s why a lot of people don’t stop using their cars.

—Maria Herrera, Los Angeles commuter who can’t drive

A survey in the San Francisco Bay Area revealed that 22% of residents avoid public transit due to safety concerns​. In the Twin Cities, public transportation crime has been on the rise, prompting community calls for action.

I carry a pocket knife with me whenever I take the light rail. If I didn’t have my knife, I wouldn’t feel safe. I’ve seen some scary things on the light rail.

—Molly Jamison, Twin Cities Metro commuter who can’t drive

The sooner we talk openly about this stuff, the better. The worst thing to do is downplay it out of fear that people might start sharing stories about perceived safety and crime.

Do you want more people to take the bus?

Use the subway?

Share rides with strangers?

Then ask people who drive everywhere about “transit trips not taken” and take lots of notes.