We're not prepared for Baby Boomers aging

If local land use & transportation policy isn't reformed quickly, older adults will pay the ultimate price.

An unprecedented demographic shift is underway. By 2040, 80 million Americans will be over 65. The rapidly growing subgroup of elders aged 85 and older (geriatricians and gerontologists call them "very old," "old-old," or the "oldest old") will have nearly quadrupled from 2000 to 2040.

A tsunami evokes an apocalyptic, destructive surge; the “silver tsunami” is caused by an increasing population of older adults. The term is often used to describe our population's ongoing seismic demographic shift.

Psychology Today, Oct 19, 2023

⚠️ The Silver Tsunami is a demographic shift having a massive impact on land use and transportation. 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says the US can expect a greater than 50% increase in the number of 80-year-old drivers on the road between 2020 and 2030. Tens of millions of 80-year-olds are going to be driving everywhere because that's their only viable option. 

Aging affects reflexes, eyesight, cognition, and overall safety behind the wheel. Older drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes than younger drivers. This is well documented, even if it’s rare to discuss among infrastructure experts. Traffic impact studies don’t address it, site plan proposals don’t reference it, and rezoning rejections don’t acknowledge it. The built environment is continually forcing seniors into certain danger.

As tens of millions of individuals reach the age of 80, driving isn’t just a matter of convenience but a lifeline. But a host of physiological and physical changes impact the ability to drive safely.

• It takes more time to respond to changes on the road. Decision-making slows down.

• It’s harder to see directly in front and off to the sides, even during broad daylight.

• It’s not as easy to remember directions or traffic patterns.

🚑 Humans are living longer, but are still vulnerable to the harsh physics of traffic crashes. 

According to AAA, drivers 80 and above have the highest rates of automobile deaths. They had more than six times the death rate of drivers ages 30-49 and almost double the death rate of teens. Look at these graphs from a 2017 research project:

While humans are enjoying longer life spans, the vulnerability to the inherent dangers of traffic crashes is particularly pronounced among the older demographic. Despite medical and technological progress, the aging human body remains susceptible. 

⚕️ Legalize mixed-use neighborhoods, abolish the traffic engineering “level of service,” and install traffic calming projects fast & furiously.

These are important health and wellness issues for Boomers whether or not they realize it. On the other hand, resisting reform is a type of ageism. 

Mixed-use neighborhoods are a departure from conventional zoning that separates residential and commercial areas. Local land use regulations are what block communities from having living spaces, businesses, and recreational areas within walking distance of each other. 

Abolishing the traditional "level of service" metric in traffic engineering is a paradigm shift away from prioritizing vehicular flow over public safety. When you stop sacrificing human lives on the altar of Level of Service, you’re free to deploy traffic calming measures. Bump-outs, speed tables, wide sidewalks, bright crosswalks, roundabouts, chicanes, street trees, pedestrian-scale lighting—these are all proven ways to protect aging adults.